Facts, Guesses, and Missing Information
Short summary: Solving gets easier when you separate what you know, what you think, and what you still need to find out.
Big idea​
Facts, guesses, and missing information are three different things. Mixing them up leads to bad solutions, because you end up acting on a guess as if it were a fact.
Why it matters​
A lot of problems get worse when someone treats a guess like a fact. "She's ignoring me" might feel true, but it could be a guess. The fact might just be "she hasn't replied yet." When you sort what you actually know from what you are assuming, you make calmer, smarter choices.
Kid-friendly explanation​
Think like a detective. A detective writes down clues they can see (facts), ideas about what might have happened (guesses), and questions they still need to answer (missing information). They do not arrest someone just because of a hunch.
- Facts are what you can observe or check.
- Guesses are possible explanations.
- Missing information is what you still need before deciding.
Tool: the three-column sort​
Draw three columns and fill them in:
| Facts | Guesses | Missing Information |
|---|---|---|
| What I can observe or check | What might be true | What I still need to find out |
Useful questions:
- What do I actually know?
- What am I assuming?
- What would help me know more?
- Who or what could I ask?
Activity: Mystery Problem​
Pick a fictional example and sort it into the three columns:
- A tablet will not turn on.
- A friend stopped replying.
- A class plant is wilting.
- A budget does not have enough money.
For the tablet: a fact might be "the screen is black," a guess might be "the battery died," and missing information might be "Was it charged last night? Does the charger work?"
Discussion questions​
- Why is it risky to treat a guess like a fact?
- What is one guess you once believed that turned out to be wrong?
- How can a question help you solve a problem?
- Who could you ask when information is missing?
Try it this week​
When you feel sure about why something happened, pause and ask: "Is that a fact, or a guess?" Then think of one question that could check it.
Adult note​
This is not about interrogating kids or proving them wrong. It is about modeling curiosity and reducing blame. When an adult says "I'm not sure yet — let's find out," kids learn that not knowing is a normal, fixable part of solving problems.